Ian Pool (auth.), Shripad Tuljapurkar, Naohiro Ogawa, Anne's Ageing in Advanced Industrial States: Riding the Age Waves - PDF

By Ian Pool (auth.), Shripad Tuljapurkar, Naohiro Ogawa, Anne H. Gauthier (eds.)

ISBN-10: 9048135524

ISBN-13: 9789048135523

ISBN-10: 9048135532

ISBN-13: 9789048135530

Population development slowed internationally within the final a long time of the 20th century, altering considerably our view of the longer term. The 21st century is probably going to determine the tip to global inhabitants progress and develop into the century of inhabitants getting older, marked by way of low fertility and ever-increasing existence expectancy. those developments have caused many to foretell a dark destiny brought on by an exceptional fiscal burden of inhabitants getting older. In reaction, industrialized countries might want to enforce potent social and fiscal rules and courses.

This is the ultimate quantity in a chain of 3. The papers incorporated discover many examples and advance the root for powerful fiscal and social rules by means of investigating the commercial, social, and demographic effects of the changes within the buildings of inhabitants and kinfolk. those outcomes contain alterations in financial habit, either in exertions and fiscal markets, and in regards to saving and intake, and intergenerational transfers of cash and care.

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Additional info for Ageing in Advanced Industrial States: Riding the Age Waves - Volume 3

Sample text

There is almost the need to raise the question whether or not the issue of population ageing has been exaggerated. Certainly at the end of the projection period far more countries will see their modes at 30–59 years than at ages above this. More importantly this analysis of modes presages the later discussion in this paper. Looking at Table 3 one sees almost a wave and then an ebbing. I turn now to an analysis of these sorts of effects in order to show how turbulent the age transition will be for some countries.

1: growth rates are too low by a factor ten. 6 7 36 N. Keilman observed for less developed countries, where data quality often is poor (Keilman 2001). In the present paper, the focus is on industrialized countries and, therefore, I shall assume that inaccurate age structure forecasts are only caused by wrong assumptions for the components of change. Errors in projected age structures for various industrialized countries turn out to have a common pattern. The errors are large and positive for young age groups and more or less equally large but negative for the elderly.

6%. 6%. e0, where H is Keyfitz’ concentration index (Keyfitz 1985). 48 for women). With a life expectancy of around 40 years, the undercount in the census of 1769 explains roughly half a year of the life expectancy difference, but certainly not more than 1 year. 3. Brunborg’s results are not entirely reliable before 1800, due to the arbitrary choice of the age distribution for 1735 (Model North, level 8). After 1800, the initial age distribution is washed out. Unfortunately, we do not know how sensitive the life expectancy estimates before 1800 are for different choices of the stable age distribution in 1735.

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Ageing in Advanced Industrial States: Riding the Age Waves - Volume 3 by Ian Pool (auth.), Shripad Tuljapurkar, Naohiro Ogawa, Anne H. Gauthier (eds.)


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