By Jean-Hervé Lorenzi, Mickaël Berrebi
During the Nineties Francis Fukuyama introduced the top of historical past. The 2000s confirmed the way it is an phantasm to visualize a calm global with no conflict.
In this booklet the authors discover how six significant constraints are set to mend the trajectory of the worldwide financial system. 3 of them are new: the getting older inhabitants, the failure of technical growth, and the shortage of reductions. the opposite 3 were at paintings for a while: the explosion of inequality, the mass move of actions from one finish of the area to the opposite, and the unlimited financialization of economic system. They recommend that like seismic job which depends upon strain among tectonic plates, the political and social tensions may be exacerbated within the coming years through those significant forces. They suggest that gurus can be incapable of forestalling neither the date nor the depth of the arriving earthquakes, and ask the query: can we do something about those destiny shocks and the violence they're absolute to reason?
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Additional info for A Violent World: Modern Threats to Economic Stability
Thus, South Korea acquired land in Argentina to supply itself with meat; Japan is interested in Egypt for its vegetable oil and sugar; India is looking at Malaysia for its palm oil. Leasing agricultural land is an alternative if financial and/or political reasons do not permit certain countries to become landowners abroad. These purchases or leases of arable land are continuing relentlessly, mainly for reasons of food security. Whether considering energy, water or arable land, it has to be acknowledged that the conditions for the production of these resources are very uncertain.
Unlike other countries in the region, Japan introduced special provisions for the elderly that are relatively similar to what has been done in Europe, consisting of generous pensions and a suitable health and care system. Japan will now have to bear the cost in the long term, which represents a heavy burden on the budget deficit. In the rest of Asia, on the other hand, transfers of public money to the ageing population are very small and, if they remain so, ageing ought not to threaten public expenditure.
The reality of the world will thus change, for better or worse, and will be determined by four characteristics. To return to the official sources, the ageing of the population will occur in almost every country in the world. 8 The intergenerational 36 A Violent World relationship will be crucial. ‘Overall, the number of people aged 60 or over ought to more than double, from 841 million people in 2013 to more than two billion in 2050. 9 Work will become a heavy constraint. ‘Many elderly people still need to work, especially in the developing countries.
A Violent World: Modern Threats to Economic Stability by Jean-Hervé Lorenzi, Mickaël Berrebi